Seven days from now, Hollywood will gather at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles for the 98th Academy Awards, and for once, virtually no one can say with confidence who will walk away with the night's biggest prizes. It is a remarkably wide-open race — the kind that produces genuinely suspenseful television — and the entire industry is watching the final days of campaigning with an intensity rarely seen this close to the ceremony.
The central drama surrounds the Best Picture category, where two very different visions of American cinema are locked in what prognosticators have called a "split the evening" scenario. Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" — a genre-redefining vampire thriller set in 1930s Mississippi, starring Michael B. Jordan in a dual role as twin brothers — shattered records by earning 16 Oscar nominations, the most ever for a single film. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another," an ambitious adaptation of Thomas Pynchon's notoriously unfilmable novel "Vineland," swept through the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTA, and Golden Globe awards, making Anderson the presumptive frontrunner for Best Director.
The tension in the Best Actor race has been the season's defining subplot. For months, Timothée Chalamet looked like the near-certain winner for his portrayal of eccentric ping-pong prodigy Marty Applebaum in Josh Safdie's "Marty Supreme," having claimed both the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award. But his campaign hit a wall when he lost at the BAFTAs and then again at the Actor Awards — formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards — where Michael B. Jordan claimed the prize for his extraordinary dual performance in "Sinners." History strongly favors the Actor Award winner, as nearly every Best Actor Oscar winner since 2000 has won either a BAFTA or an SAG Award. Chalamet has won neither, putting him in an almost unprecedented position for a perceived frontrunner this close to Oscar night.
In the acting categories, Jessie Buckley is the closest thing to a lock the evening has to offer. The Irish actress, nominated for Best Actress for her shattering performance as a grieving mother in Chloé Zhao's "Hamnet," won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Actor Award — a precursor sweep that has historically pointed to Oscar victory in virtually every year it has occurred. The Best Supporting Actress race, by contrast, has been one of the most chaotic of the season, with Teyana Taylor, Wunmi Mosaku, and Amy Madigan each claiming a major precursor trophy, leaving analysts genuinely uncertain about the outcome.
Conan O'Brien, who earned widespread praise for his witty and warm hosting of last year's ceremony, returns to lead the show for a second consecutive time. In a statement at the time, O'Brien quipped: "The only reason I'm hosting the Oscars next year is that I want to hear Adrien Brody finish his speech." He will be joined onstage by a roster of presenters that includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Robert Downey Jr., Anne Hathaway, Paul Mescal, and Will Arnett, among others. Live performances of the Best Original Song nominees "Golden," from "KPop Demon Hunters," and "I Lied to You," from "Sinners," are also confirmed.
The 98th Academy Awards air live on Sunday, March 15 on ABC and Hulu, beginning at 7 p.m. ET. With Best Picture seemingly up for grabs, a Best Actor race that could genuinely go either way, and nearly every major craft category contested, this may be the most unpredictable Oscar night in years.